$100 million in PCA3 revenueI just wanted to make a couple quick comments. I have talked about this in the past, Gen-Probe/Diagnocure will capture roughly $100 million in revenue very quickly once PCA3 receives FDA approval. This does not include the nice ramp up I expect to see in Europe in the near term. (A local hospital has said that they could bring in around $4 million.) The 8 posters that were presented at ASCO were very impressive and I also expect to see some additional discussions and publications. All of this will help generate awareness for the test and increase early adoption.
I have a neighbor that lives 2 houses up tell me that her father has has an elevated psa score for some time now and that he was scheduled for a biopsy. I passed on some articles to her along with the
www.pca3.org website. He was excited about what he read and spoke to his urologist about the test. He ended up having a negative biopsy and the physician also ordered a PCA3 test, only after the news that Gen-Probe was going to begin and FDA trial.
I bring this up because the FDA trial news and the additional posters/(studies) have created awareness and have given the patients something concrete to bring into their physicians, who intern will write scripts for the test. I know from past experience that U.S. physicians would tell patients that this was only an experimental test and that they were unable to get the test. That has all changed in a week.
Prostate cancer is a hot topic right now and companies that have an answer will be rewarded, just look at what happened to DNDN; from $2.50 to $25.00 in three days. I am also looking forward to an update from GSK on how pca3 helped them monitor their patients during their study.
Lastly, I want to comment on the share price. The stock had just worked its way back to $3.00 over the excitement of Gen-Probe calling PCA3 the "holy grail" of prostate markers and the rumors of an FDA trial. This was prior to the collapse of the market and the cliff dive that this stock and others took. The move from .45 to 1.25 is not "the move", it has been a crazy year but once all the news has been digested we will be back on track. The story is alive and the markers, GCC & PCA3, are for real and have studies to back them up. Gen-Probe is a solid company and is committed to PCA3 and Diagnocure will reap the rewards.