GREY:PCCLF - Post by User
Post by
moneymotivatoron May 09, 2009 3:02pm
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Post# 15980918
Industry comparison
Industry comparisonI was board so I decided to post a comparison between Phoscan and Athabasca Potash (API) both are junior fertilizer plays on the TSX.
The reason I decided to do this was because I noticed API has risen more than 6 fold from its lows while phoscan has been fighting to hold a double lol. The prices below are my estimates of prices for the summer by making references to the charts on my Canaccord Adams weekly agriculture report. All other info was found on each of the companies respected websites.
Potash around $800 a ton so 240 million tonnes*= $192 000 000 000 billion worth of pot at API holy crap thats a big number
phosphate around $500 ton at 120 million tonnes= $ 60 000 000 000 billion worth of phosphate not as big but still respectable
-not to mention phoscan holds niobium deposits but not gunna worry about those right now.
-so judging on the resource value API should be worth roughly 3 times the market cap of phoscan
-wow what do you know FOS currently has a market cap of 66 million while API has a market cap of 185 million do the math.
If I did this calculation a bit ealier and I would be rich, six months ago i didnt know shittt all.
-thereare many other factors which could change the valuations. I know bothcompanies are takeout targets Potash Corp takes out API and Agrium takes outFOS so pretty much what it comes down to prices of the commodity andinvestor demand.
-phosphate used to trade at $1200 big ones so im going to continue to hold and hope for the best even though its painful to watch all the other stocks ive been watching have been outperforming FOS. Ive learnt you dont get rewarded without taking any risks and Phoscan is not taking any risks at this time.