RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: BnnNo, this is good. You're right though, opti will not be pocketing $1/share this year. But at the end of the year, if rates were to get to 40,000, then is it safe to say that the gross money generated could be around $1/share, at that time?
I tend to use a gross EPS to value an asset as debt repayments, write off/downs, taxes, etc can really affect the bottom line to a point that it's impossible to call. That may not be appropriate jargon use but that's how I was looking at it. I think 10 is fair gross EPS as this could put the net EPS around 15-20. But of course these values can be all over the map depending on many other variables including market conditions, so who knows?
Just for the sake of it, lets tone it down to 40,000 average production for 2010 and opti grosses $1/share.
Then everything looks good and they average 55,000 in 2011. I'm going to call oil at $100 by then (at least) and they should be at their design $23/bl production costs with syngas and orcrude running fully. So that gives us a $77 netback.
(55,000 X 0.35 ownership X 365 days X $77) / 200,000,000 shares. = $2.7/share gross earnings for 2011. The stock price has to be at least $20 with this kind of profit, particularly when this technology gets some world recogonition and everyone wants to use it!! As you may already know, this technology will re-write the economic and environmental books for the tar sands.
So I think once people start to see a $20-30 stock in the future (did i convince you yet?) , the price seems to start to go that way, sometimes way before it should! The market even accepted $25 before the plant was even built and I think the market perception is slowly starting to come around again too.
Giver