RE: ExpectationsI agree with Browser that the expectations should be tempered a little. The projections of reserves may be the plus 2M but it may be heaviliy weighted in the indicated category as the drill spacing in far too wide to move it into the measured. As for a mine, we are a few years from that stage yet. It takes between 12 to 24 months just to get through the permitting stage. As for Orex financing a mining operation at the scale required, that will require a lot more work and almost certainly either a joint venture or buy out.
Let's postulate for a moment and assume Orex will bring this to production. This is the time and steps I would take:
This assumes a "Zero" time line start date of let's say July 2009.
- Finace at least $20M for major drilling and sampling operation. (month 0 to 6)
- Mobilize 5 drills to site with 4 being tasked to drill the area from the headframe to the cross cutting fault west of the ramp. Fence drill this zone on 12.5 meter spacings with HQ calibre core. The remaining drill could should be tasked with drilling vertical holes along the apex from the West Golbrook mine to Dollivers Mountain on 100 meter centers. (month 3 to 18)
- Simultaniously commence permitting to commence a 20,000 ton bulk sample from the ramp utilizing a 100 - 200 TPD modular gravity.CIP mill with disposal of tailing underground in the old BR stopes.(month 12 to 24)
- Define resource as "Measured" in are to be mined (month 18 to 24)
- Finance bulk sample @ approximately $25M (Month 24 to 27)
- RFP for bulk sampling (Month 24 to 27)
- Dewater ramp and slash 20,000 ton sample from 125 and 250 levels across the width of the ore body (month 27 to 36)
-Mill the 13,000 ton stockpile presently on surface to calibrate mill and subsequently mill 20,000 ton underground control bulk sample. (month 30 to 38). Utilize production profit to offset custom milling costs.
- Conduct feasibility study $3 -5M (month 36 to 42)
- Conduct detail design for 5000 TPD open pit operation $7 -10M (month 42 to 48)
- Conduct permiting process $3 -5M (month 36 to 48)
- Finance 5000 TPD open pit mining operation @ +250M +40/-15%(month 42 to 45)
- Construct 5000 TPD operation (month 48 to 72)
- Commence commercial operations (Month 72 to 76)
This just one scenario based on my warped logic but I can tell you from experience of working on various large projects none of this stuff happens over night. Schedule optimization can compress this timeframe to an extent but there is no way that I can see major production from this operation in less than 5 years.
I hate to rain on everyones parade but this is the reality of major projects. We're not going to see commercial production for a while yet.
Cheers all
Ken