RE: swing tradeEven shale does come totally free and has its costs, both to extract and to transfer to a hub. I reckon one way would be to check the latest financials of the biggest players to get an idea of what the costs are, i.e. at what level they will just stop producing/selling. In my humble opinion there will be no unhedged selling happening once the NG price gets below $3, but I could be wrong. And some bastards like Encana have hedged too...