Flight from $USDThis could in part explain oil's rapid rise:
"Hedge funds and other speculators have more than quadrupled their futures-contract
wagers on the euro’s advance against the dollar in the past four weeks to 15,584, the most since July 2008"
"The euro’s gains accelerated in the past month, rising 7 percent, the most since December, as investors sold U.S. Treasuries in favor of higher-yielding assets amid signs of economic recovery. Confidence among U.S. consumers jumped in May by the most in six years, while American service industries contracted less than forecast in April as home purchases rose. "
https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akmEREZct9A8&refer=home
I'm a little sceptical about the confidence in a quick economic recovery. But, I can see hedge funds fleeing from the $USD and stampeding into oil, gold, and commodities.
The outlook is for the euro to continue to strengthen in the short term, but weaken by September.
So, oil could continue to command a premium until the $USD strengthens. It will be interesting to see the effect of the inventory overhang if the recession does not turn the corner as quickly as is hoped.