Athena - upside potentialI think most people don't realize this project is ready to go, it's a Floating Production and Storage Offloading play. And current installation and service costs are a lot lower then with previous calculations.
Key points:
1. Has Development Approval
2. Is economical at 50 US oil
3. Can be done in about 9 months
4. Expected peak rate around 5900 bopd
5. Has 2P that will last around 4-5 years, taking away the short term production worry around Jacky
CF/s calculation then could look like this, if I take into account some decline rates to adjust for LT cf/s calculations:
At 65 $ oil & OC of 21:
Jacky/Beatrice/Alpha- 6500 bopd x 330 x 44 = 94 mln devided by 173 mln fd is 0.54 $ is 0.60 cad
Athena, say 35 OC - 5000 bopd x 330 x 30 = 49.5 mln devided by 173 mln fd is 0.29 $ is 0.31 cad
0.91 cad at 3x cf is cad 2.73
At 100$ oil, it's:
169 mln devided by 173 mln is 0.98 $ is 1.08 CAD
107 mln devided by 173 mln is 0.62 $ is 0.68 CAD
1.76 CAD at 3x cf is cad 5.28
Funding is 110 mln - if dyas exercises it's option and the the 60 mln debt falls away, this is something they can fund from cf and borrow the rest based on there cf-base. This is no fairy tale but a possible scenario.
Think again when selling at 0.70
R.