High River Gold Mines Ltd HRIVF

Avg % not voting - from 3 recent Takeovers

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I find that insufficient data is provided from takeover votes to enable us to calculate a lot of this stat.  Unfortanately, I found 3 companies that did provide all of the necessary data.

Our transaction will likely be a straight takeover vote (in the first round), where 90% is required of minority shares (strictly). 

It's a given that Severstal will get no where close to 90%.  The key to this first round though is to minimize the # of minority shares that gets tendered to Severstal.  They might try to do a Plan of Arrangement type process in the second round, which might allow them to vote their shares, along with some other things they might be able to take advantage of.  I would like to see them pick up less than 10% (preferably 0%) of the minority shares in the first round of voting.

Here are the 3 recent takeovers I was refering to (all Plan of Arrangement):

1) May'09 - New Gold takeover of Western Goldfields - 29.5% of Western Goldfields shares were not casted

2) Mar'09 - B2Gold takeover of Central Sun - 42.4% of Central Sun's shares were not casted

3) Feb'09 - Iamgold takeover of Orezone - 21.9% of Orezone shares were not casted

The average for the 3 transactions is 31.2%.

Remember, shares that do not get voted are then automatically counted as NO.


Let's take the average of the 3 transactions and apply it to our HRG situation:

*HRG shares not voting =  86,677,008 shares = 31.2% NO
*NC's list (recently confirmed only) = 22,442,000 shares = 8.1% NO

It means we could already have 39.3% of HRG shares as NO.  Let's add in some unconfirmed potentials:

*Sprott = 21,000,000 = 7.6% NO
*Sinclair = 5,000,000 = 1.8% NO
*Mosher & Whalen = 1,800,000 (1.6 direct & .2 indirect) = .6% NO

Total potential so far = 49.4% No

It would be good if we can get all this, plus another 40% or more.