GOLD ANALYSIS BULLISH
GOLD ANALYSIS
EXPERIENCE PAYS
Analysts bullish on gold price and on strongly managed juniors
Strengthin the gold price seen as promising for junior gold miners with capablemanagement, good projects and fund raising ability.
Author: Euan Rocha
Posted:Sunday,14 Jun 2009
TORONTO (Reuters) -
Gold analysis
EXPERIENCE PAYS
Toronto analysts bullish on gold price and on strongly managed juniors
By Euan Rocha
Strength in the gold price seen as promising for junior gold minerswith capable management, good projects and fund raising ability.
TORONTO (Reuters) -
A strong gold price has revived interest in Canada's junior goldminers, and while many remain strapped for cash, a few are set tooutpace the pack.
The juniors most likely to outperform are the ones with capablemanagement, the ability to raise funds and that have high-potentialprojects close to production.
"It's good to have a pretty deep team that has experience on theoperating side of things and experience in putting assets intoproduction," said M Partners analyst Tara Hassan.
"But it also helps if they have experience with the capital markets and understand the intricacies of dealing with the market."
Hassan sees strong prospects for Toronto-based Lake Shore Gold Corp (LSG.TO: Quote), which is developing a 100-percent-owned gold project near Timmins, Ontario.
The company recently started processing development ore from thesite and expects to produce 30,000 ounces of gold this year, withoverall production ramping up to about 200,000 ounces a year by 2011 asthe company expands exploration activity and mill capacity.
"Lake Shore Gold has a really strong balance sheet, the company isputting one asset into production and looking to ramp up work onothers," said Hassan, who has a "buy" rating and a C$3 price target onthe stock, well above the C$2.46 level at which the stock is currentlytrading.
GMP Securities analyst Jacques Wortman and Wellington West analystPaolo Lostritto also see strong potential in Lake Shore, which is 40percent owned by United Kingdom-based precious metals producerHochschild Mining (HOCM.L: Quote).
Wortman is also bullish on exploration company Romarco Minerals (R.V: Quote), which owns the Haile mine in South Carolina.
"We believe that there is decent potential for Haile to supporthigher-grade underground mining operations at some point in the minelife," Wortman said in a note to clients, adding that this could resultin both an increase in annual production and an extended mine life.
Romarco is headed by Diane Garrett, a former analyst and fundmanager at U.S. Global Investors, and while Garrett lacks an operationsbackground, analysts note that she has brought in a strong team of mineoperators.
Romarco, is one of a few junior miners with a strong institutionalinvestor base. Almost 50 percent of its shares are held by a handful ofinstitutional investors, including Sprott Asset Management and U.S.Global Investors.
BULLION PRICE KEY
However, the positive outlook for these juniors assumes that the price of gold remains strong.
Although trading near record levels, the price of gold has beenunable to hold above the $1,000 per ounce barrier that it crossedbriefly in February. Spot gold <XAU=> was about $940 an ounce onFriday.
Lostritto of Wellington West sees a slight correction in the priceof gold this summer, before a new rally toward the end of this year.
"When I look at macro indicators this market makes me nervous. Ithink we've had a good run in the juniors here and it's probably wiseto take some money off the table in the event that there is apull-back," he said.
"At the same time, there are some good (junior) names out there thathave good value. If we see a correction they are likely going to suffernonetheless."
But Lostritto, who touts the prospects of San Gold (SGR.V: Quote) and Victoria Gold (VIT.V: Quote), remains bullish on the price of gold and gold equities over the long term -- a sentiment shared by most analysts.
Investors view the precious metal as a safe haven amid turbulent markets and a hedge against inflation.
"The most important driver for gold is the expectation that thetrillions of dollars in bailouts that are being created in Washingtonwill lead to a much lower U.S. dollar, which means a much higher goldprice," said John Ing, president of Toronto investment dealer MaisonPlacements.
"Less gold is coming to market, while demand is growing. That canonly mean one thing. The price of gold will go higher." (Editing byJanet Guttsman)
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