Take Over Bid Analysis*Green represents the various % of minority shares that are tendered in first phase (Take Over Bid)
*Blue represent the various % of
remaining minority shares are tendered in the second phase (Plan of Arrangement)
*The % in the white/red box is the final minority % tendered in Plan of Arrangement. Severstal gets control at more than 50% (which are represented by red hue)
We can see the various combinations of green and red %s where Severstal is successful. For example, in the first phase, if they get only 5% shares tendered, then they need close to 50% of the remaining minority shares to see them through.
On the other hand, if they get 25% shares in the first phase, then they can sail through with only about 35% remaining shares in the next phase.
Needless to say, we should work towards making sure they get nothing in the first phase. Where are we in terms of getting a shareholder list and calling folks individually?
| % Minority Tendering in Take Over Bid | % Remaining Minority Tendering in Plan of Arrangement |
| 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| 5% | 10% | 15% | 19% | 24% | 29% | 34% | 38% | 43% | 48% | 53% |
| 10% | 15% | 19% | 24% | 28% | 33% | 37% | 42% | 46% | 51% | 55% |
| 15% | 19% | 24% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 41% | 45% | 49% | 53% | 58% |
| 20% | 24% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 40% | 44% | 48% | 52% | 56% | 60% |
| 25% | 29% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 44% | 48% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 63% |
| 30% | 34% | 37% | 41% | 44% | 48% | 51% | 55% | 58% | 62% | 65% |
| 35% | 38% | 42% | 45% | 48% | 51% | 55% | 58% | 61% | 64% | 68% |
| 40% | 43% | 46% | 49% | 52% | 55% | 58% | 61% | 64% | 67% | 70% |
| 45% | 48% | 51% | 53% | 56% | 59% | 62% | 64% | 67% | 70% | 73% |
| 50% | 53% | 55% | 58% | 60% | 63% | 65% | 68% | 70% | 73% | 75% |