Price analysis
Investors come off the sidelines prompted by a weaker dollar and higher oil prices.
Market overview
Price exchanges – inventory declines have driven prices higher.
Copper technicals – prices approaching a key price point in terms of trend direction.
Technicals
Technical signs indicate the US recession is over (or close); commodity markets are bullish.
Fundamentals
Supply – no sign yet of significant price-related supply increases.
Demand – Asian demand is leading the rest of the world.
Economic trends
USA – better-than-expected jobs report changes sentiment.
Europe – economy is either in, or very close to, the trough of the recession.
China – consumer momentum evident in home and vehicle sales data.
Annual Monte Carlo price simulation
Lower inventory levels and upward cost pressure shift prices in H2-2009 higher.
Quarterly Monte Carlo results
Higher oil prices, a weaker dollar, and new buying have eliminated downside price potential.
Managing price risk
Consumers – with the price in an uptrend, buyers need to catch dips in the price.
Producers – market is looking ahead to potential tightness next year, so sell the rallies.