RE: Latest List
Hi NC,
I just took a quick glance at the list. My guess is that "hfc" is likely "HFC101". Both "HFC101" and "Thyfish" are still with us. Once they confirm their shares are still the same then you can add them to "YES". If shares are same then it represents a pick up of 573K to the bottom line. Adammacc confirm today also, along with his friend. Then I think we have other people who told us about their count today. That pushes the "YES" count to decently over 24M.
24M for NC's list + 26M for Sprott = 50M
50M / 277M total minority shares issued = 18.1%
Already, holders of 18.1% of total minority shares outstanding are saying that Severstal shouldn't even waste their time with an offer under $1.00. This is even before factoring in all of the other very large shareholders out there that I am very very very positive are thinking that $.22 for shares of a gold mining company with a huge portfolio of profitable assets, and excellent advanced exploration assets, is a pathetic joke. Maybe they would be able to get away with it if this was 1999, with the gold price at $250. Hello! This is 10 years later - 2009 with a $940 gold price.
The reality is that even $1.00 is a joke. NC, once the share price begins to move, and the company continues to show improved results, I have a feeling many people on your list will increase their target price. Personally, once the shares before free trading again, I think HRG is worth $2.60 per share just base on the current profile (per my analysis). However, my view of HRG goes up as the US$106.5 is eliminated. And, it goes up even further as we get closer to bringing Bissa into production. There is a feasibility study going on. Obviously, we don't know what the outcome will be. However, if management does this right then I personally see at least 150,000 ounces of annual production coming out of Bissa. I see open pit mining and heap leach processing. They should try to get this up and running relatively quickly (although still a couple of years away - depending how aggressive they want to be). Athough, open pit mining and heap leach processing is probably the quickest and cheapest type of mine to bring into production. Then they can use the cash flow from the heap leach operation to build a milling operation after a couple of years of production to process the higher grade material.
Again, it is impossible to know what's truly possible without an actual feasibility study, but I'm looking for 150,000 of annual gold production from Bissa at US$300 - 350 cash cost per ounce.
And, I haven't even talked about Prognoz as yet - the largest undeveloped silver project in the world, in terms of both size and grade. You know, 43-101 silver ounces of 205,000,000 with average grade per tonne of around 700, from only 2 veins - we own 50%. There are over 30 known mineralized veins on the property.
Honestly? From a fairness standpoint? Once Bissa is up and running down the road, I don't see what would make Eldorado Gold any more special than HRG. Eldorado Gold currently has a market cap of $4.032 Billion.
$4.032 Billion / approx. HRG outstanding shares of 660M = $6.10 per share
To be honest, with our US$106.50M debt eliminated and Bissa up and producing gold, in 2 to 3 years $6.10 per share is true value IMO (based on today's gold price, never mind if the price moves much higher). Of course, this is unless Severstal is allowed to continue diluting the heck out of us. We somehow have to get a stop to that.