comments - speculating/hedging with Beta's......I'm amazed at all the fuzzy thinking that goes on here
And especially since the principles were all discussed for 6 mo on the HOU/HOD thread
you are likely to lose money
First HNU HND charts mean little and technicals do not apply
You are predicting moves in N gas one to one and on futures moves with
the contango and daily reset implications You chart and analyse N ,not the betas
Hnu has no intrinsic value it is leverage on futures I t has no earnings power
It ius not like other stocks It it time sensitive It is not a stocks It has time risks
HNU does NOT go "on sale".
It rests daily and goes up or down each day ( the past is irrelevant)
So pay attention to : $natgas on
www.stockcharts.com gallery view
and your 3 day futures charts and monthly tables ( contango spread)
You do not average down . It is not an equity with intrinsic value
You wait for a new firm trend then buy - not any sooner
( dolf why not just send me your money rather than lose it to HNU erosion )
You can buy a 1 x times like GAS as "on sale" - not a 2 x which can erode
or consider the new Jan contract 1 X N Gas etf HUN
( maybe starts to move in Sept? )
Likely you will find that big hurricanes occur in late Aug so odds
are against you to expect damage soon and if at all
Will it get significantly hotter in the southern and eastern US ?
If you want to buy and hold N gas do it ONLY repeat ONLY with say t:GAS or z:UNG
or new HUN not the 2x betas
HNU should be treated as a trading product for any 1 to 3 days
Then it will likely change direction
The only time you will win big is when a TREND repeat TREND starts
for say days to 3 months ( can you predict it ? )
Do not enter before .
A trend likely will not start till sometime in Sept
Unless you want to trade for a day or two based on your
Opinion ( guess) of what the future will do
in any given 1 to 3 DAYS
Note beta has brought out new one times inverses for people to sit on but not yet in oil gas HIN ?
Possibly trade GAS / HUN for 5 to 10 days and then longer from Sept
expect N gas and HNU HND to oscillate for the next 7 weeks
So with algebraic ( that's gr 11 math ) resets , HNU likely will erode if N gas oscillates around
3.70 for weeks
I had predicted ( about 10 days ago )a retest of 3.30 but the remarkably accurate price boxes
on gallery view suggest 3.50 is the bottom to test
So maybe trade HNU from ( when nat gas is ) there
Nothing wrong with trying to trade hnu hnd but realize what you are doing and that it is tough
NEVER ever think of hnu as " a bargain here and can't go lower and can only go up"
and is a bargain = WRONG
And if N gas goes from 3.50 to 6.00 by Dec ( 71%)
then HNU can go up say 2 x 71 = 141 % from what ever bottom it touches
- and can be more or less depending how it staircases
Say 4.60 x 2.41 = 11.00 ish
Any trend will fluctuate before Dec so you should/would sell before then
Note you will see 2 more rollovers : Aug Sept ( a chance for loss )
recommend buy some GAS say Aug 1 then add some HNU at Sept 15 if trend starting
And thank's to the poster who gave the N gas storage chart last week
Not how curve is expanding out above of the normal filling range
Price should stay weak/flat for weeks ( ie short time trades only )
I still haven't entered (and was a bit too risky to buy HND at this stage
- but could have correctly traded )
Note there was no real trend up so I would only lose if I bought HNU for a period of time
And watch for month to month Contango(s) to shrink ( but not go to zero )
as a sign of up trend coming
Some of the other fellows do a good job explaining math and calculations see HOU
and possible reposts
Formulas are at the website
the only thing you can be sure of :
Masterful entertainment from the perennial class of the CFL : go Eskkies
Regards
U