High River Gold Mines Ltd HRIVF

RE: What happens when offer fails??

[Critical_Mass]

Well it is anyone's guess what will happen, butthere are a couple factors I think that are holding the share price in placenow that will be removed once this plays out.

Certainly we can probably all agree that some people/ institutions/ arbitragefunds will be tendering to Severstal's bid who think this is fair or have ashort term outlook.  If I was going to take it, I would be slowly sellingmy shares now to people like myself and others here who are accumulating above thetakeover price. This is surely helping to hold the share price in place rightnow.   When they tender their shares, these week hands on the offer willbe gone as they will have just all sold. If any are remaining by then.  Also Iam sure people are out there who don't know about what is going on with ourlist ect, think Sevestal will succeed, and hence are also selling as theprice now is better then their takeover price.  Both of these forces willbe gone when this all plays out.

So you ask, who will be on the bid.  I ask, who will be on the offer onceall the week hands sell and the fear is gone that the company is going to betaken over at 22c..  The share price was moving up finally before thetakeover offer stopped it.    So as long as we have enough votes toblock this, I don't think we have anything to fear and will be stronger in thelong run as this will get rid of the weak hands.

On the buy side, the fundamentals of this company will play out to drawbuyers.  If the projections I have seen here are right this company will only be increasingly profitable and generating significant cash flow.  There is only so muchspin you can put on this, and Severstal wants the cash just as much as all ofus. 

In the end if we sit tight and refuse to sell the price will go up.Severstal after all wants High River to be successful as well, as they are themajority owner.  And from what I read with their existing problems withtheir Steel Assets, they have every interest to turn this company aroundas fast as possible as they are broke. 

I am sure they would love to swallow this company, its assets, and nice cashflow now.  However it isn't going to happen.  Failing that they willpick up as many more shares as they can at 22c.

So remember every word out of them is marketing and spin to make us buy thisPOS deal they are trying to sell us.  Of course they are saying it isgreat value.   They are like a used car salesmen who is trying tosell us a lemon and will use any tactic.  Don't buy it oranything the salesmen says.  This is no different.  Most of us hereown this company for the fundamentals.  And sometimes that take time to assert itself. Fortunately,we have already waited.  The next few quarterly reports should reward us.Have patience.  To borrow a quote, the only thing to fear is fear itself.  Don't be intimidated by these Russian thugs trying to rob us...