comments -- on posts etc .....Glad you fellows are referring to
www.StockCharts.com for $natgas
( best to use Gallery view )
as I recommended in ( see previous) posts in last 2 weeks
that is where you find 3.55 and 3.30 as possible support
( or could dip lower )
And you'll see on Point and Figure that Sept is the seasonal month
for the bottom and turn
So is the reason to buy t:gas or z:ung (before HNU ) or
new HUN (say in Sept or Oct closer to it's Jan contract)
It was mentioned on tv 10 days? ago that UNG was distorted ( bid up ) while fund waited
for gov't approval to create more units to meet investor demand
Safer to wait until turn-up month of Sept to buy ( the 2x ) HNU
( add as sweetener to above 1x ) on the likely start of a TREND UP
Of course you could try trading HNU or HND for a couple of days at a time
and HOD is working
Wikipedia and new Wikinvestor sites have good but short comments on Contango and Backwardation
( backwardation is usual rare - result of unexpected event to cause significant shortage
or a world bull market peak eg when oil hit 147 and no one expected it to stay that high
eg Florida freeze of oranges
I can't see a B.. for N G as the storage caverns act as a buffer until
some capped wells are brought back on line by the majors in a matter of days if urgently needed
ie in the event of a ( short-term ) problem ( hurricane or land pipeline )
Contango would just shrink down to near zero and production can increase ( before it needs to go to B.. )
interesting I can't find more on ( the debate of ):
Whether Contango is defined as EXCESSIVE forward futures curve or just ANY forward curve
A slightly increasing forward curve is the balanced norm
ie some cost for storage , insurance and cost of money
So note how 6 mo oil contango spread shrunk from $25 to $7 or less in March June period
(so roll over(s) hurt less )
And indicated over-supply was lessening
Averaging down in any investment ( during the decline ) is usually bad practice -and more so for a 2x
( and I would wait until late Aug before trying to ave down in any case -as timing is important)
say msft
reading charts includes staying out
I have watched $natgas and stayed out ( while contemplating for 4 mo )and don't expect to buy
before end of Aug (or more likely Sept )
The chart said wait The April-May pop could have been played but then again couldn't have been relied on
certainly trickdeal -
the main one is winter and the turn up doesn't come til Sept per $natgas chart
( which is more important (ie likely reliable ) than the HNU chart
--Humm Larry B just said the same thing )
msft gets it -- you don't lean to the hurricane threat- ie as I mentioned 2 weeks ago
btw ( mid ) July is the seasonal month to watch the charts and enter gold and gold stocks
Regards and Good investing
U