TSXV:CSG.H - Post by User
Comment by
longrider1964on Jul 08, 2009 12:50pm
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Post# 16124787
RE: what i would like to see
RE: what i would like to seeI have finally decided to post after reading all the conspiracy theorists best rants and others pie in the sky hopes and dreams! Do u people notice what time and year it is and what has been going on? Yes the price of gold is holding and will move higher but $100 dollars up will not equal $1 up for the castle sp. The real engine is earnings and cash flow and that is about to show up just as the market is gonna get hot for gold equities, albeit juniors will be the last to go. All you people dreaming of a quick 5 to 10 banger dream on. You have two choices, organic growth where the numbers show our great progress and the share price reflects this in 12-18 months ($3-4) or merger fuelled growth but where we are assigned true value for our assets. By the end of the year Castillo should be good for $25-30 million in free cash flow annually based on lom costs of $370, pog of $900-1000 going forward, and production of 50-55,000 ounces annually.
This said lets remember that the major markets are down from their highs nearly 40-50% so the average guy is still shell shocked and the markets have yet to turn to gold equities in any major way. What to do then. I would say MP strategy is worth a shot. The two ways you will make money in the next few years is increased production times increased pog showing up as growing cash flow/earnings, but the greater gain is leap frogging into an expanding p/e multiple as you merge into an ever bigger entity. The big money guys are the ones who will take u into the stratosphere and they can't/won't touch a vse listed junior with 50,000 production. But a big board listing with 200,000 ounces and big growth potential is something they would chase! As we are we will never get anything above 5 times earnings in the next 6-12 months, and stop bitching over expenses that amount to only 1 penny per share of earnings, welcome to the big leagues where the pigs are hungry but you gotta play in the dirt with them to get rich!
Summing up my personal rant we have concluded that juniors get 5-10 p/e, mid tiers 20-30, and the big boys 40 and beyond (Agnico-Eagle is at 80 but they have the market hypnoized as far as I am concerned) So would it not pay us quite handsomely to play this game. eg Castle and say Capital? Together we would have over 100,000 with 150-200 easily reached in a 12 month push. That makes us Minefinders equal and they have a market cap twice the combined value of the two of us. And once we are joined why not approach them and do another deal? Now we have a company doing well over 250,000 ounces with 350-400 an easy goal with some effort in a 12-18month stretch, just as the markets have heated up for gold equities. I would say that new company would be worth multiple billions by then and u would be sitting on an easy 10 (if not 20 bagger) even after all the share numbers games had been played out. Not bad for a 5 year investment it todays environment. We are not yet in the mania phase so we all have to temper our expectations! But if we get into this merger game now and play it well, and MP strikes me as a guy who can play the game with the best of them then once the mania hits u could see some carzy returns, 50 times your money is not out of the question. So if u r antzy and in a rush then I suggest u move on and find another stock to play cause this one is about value and growth played in an ever expanding hurricane of opportunity to cash in big!