Fig 2 of Weekly Petroleum ReportHave a look at the petroleum stocks figure 2 in the weekly report. Very interresting stuff. The next 2 weekly reports will determine whether Oil goes back to $35 or up to $65 in the near term. Look at the 5 year band. Typically from April to May - stocks go up - this year they went down. Typically from May to Mid July stocks go up, this year they went up, but at a faster pace than normal. From Now until August the stocks are typically flat. In the next two reports show stocks going up - expect Oil to tank. If they are flat - should stay between $55-60, If they show stocks going down - oil should go back to $65-70.
There are many factors that will affect the total stock numbers on the supply side. Imports of Gasoline and a reduction in floating storage are the biggest factors. My take is that the total stocks will be flat or down over the next two weeks - but if they go up, it'll be an ugly summer for oil stocks.