POWER PRICES MAY INCREASE IN 2010Power-Station Coal May Rise on China Demand, Supplies, UBS Says
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By Ben Sharples
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Power-station coal prices in Asia may increase in 2010 because of higher demand from China, the second-largest energy-consuming nation, and supply constraints, UBS AG said.
UBS has raised its 2010 forecast for the benchmark coal grade burned by Japanese utilities to $90 a metric ton from $80 a ton in 2010, analysts from the bank wrote in a report dated yesterday. Power-station coal prices at Australia’s Newcastle port, an Asian benchmark, climbed 6.5 percent to $73.13 a ton in the week ended July 3, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index.
Bottlenecks at Australian ports, heavy rain in Indonesia and increased imports by China constrained supplies of the fuel to Asian customers in 2007 and drove up prices. Market conditions are expected to tighten starting in the fourth quarter of this year and peak in 2011, UBS said.
“We are once again experiencing an increasingly tighter coal market with a theme developing similar to 2007,” UBS analysts led by Jakarta-based Andreas Bokkenheuser said in the note. China, the biggest producer and consumer of coal, burns the fuel to generate about 80 percent of its electricity.
Power use is increasing in China, as light industries step up production, after heavy industrial growth recovered in June, the UBS analysts said. Australian and Indonesian supply growth remains low and mining shutdowns in China’s Shanxi province have added to regional supply constraints, UBS said.
Price estimates for 2011 to 2013 have been reduced to factor in a possible supply response as coal producers address shortages, the analysts said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net.
do your own due diligence
herb
Last Updated: July 6, 2009 23:41 EDT