other comments..Paff thanks for digging a bit
gnerally agree that gas fired electricity is main variable for modest swings
for July Aug
And shows that HNU / HND will likely just have say 12- 25% swings during the slightly
varying gas injection period ( July - Aug ) ie NG 3.30 to 3.80ish for 5 more weeks
So buy and hold - ie of the order of 4 weeks
is risky
And one has to speculate the draw dawn by industrial demand and true winter
Starting after mid Sept-- even Nov 1st , for a move towards 5.50 gas
and I lean to theory #A
How many companies entered good hedge pricing recently like ECA and can pump out
50% of their production at good rates to subsidize the other 50% and
slow the competition- juniors ( from drilling )
and
E. - many jr to mid size companies must maintain cash flow at any price to pay recent development loans
but then is all spec
we just watch the reality of the injection numbers
And $natgas chart reflects all data and T A tells us when and where to buy -to say 90% odds
( except natural disaster - bump from gulf hurricane forming or 1% chance of severe damage and regulatory!)
Shows all are learning to just accept/ expect bottom swings for 5 weeks ( 9 weeks from end June )
( and to wait out the Aug and Sept Futures months rollovers each year)
And not buy/hold in the downtrend in May June
Now we get the dip with the ftc/sec rules
So maybe a base on Fri or Mon for a swing? ( roll over and injection report )
Regards U