outlook for oil pricesHOUSTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. government analysts on Tuesday maintained an optimistic outlook for oil prices due to an improving economy, despite recent volatility in crude markets.
The Energy Information Administration said in its monthly outlook that benchmark West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude will average about $72 per barrel in 2010, unchanged from last month's outlook. In the third quarter of 2009, crude prices are poised to average $67.38 a barrel, $1.62 lower than in the previous outlook. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2009 remains the same at $70 per barrel.
"As always, energy price movements are highly uncertain," and "tend to fluctuate within a wide range in a relatively short period," the EIA report said.
Gasoline prices are likely to be influenced by crude oil volatility, and could approach the peak seen on June 22 "later this summer," the EIA said. The average price of regular-grade gasoline is expected to increase to $2.66 per gallon in 2010 from $2.34 per gallon in 2009 - a decrease of 3 cents per gallon from last month's forecast.
In the third quarter, regular gasoline prices will average $2.59 in the third quarter, 6 cents lower than in the previous forecast; and $2.53 in the fourth quarter, 3 cents below last month's outlook.
Diesel prices will average $2.84 a gallon in 2010, higher than the $2.79 per gallon forecast issued last month. Third quarter diesel prices will average $2.60 per gallon, one cent lower than in the previous forecast. Fourth quarter diesel prices will average $2.74 per gallon, 3 cents above the July outlook.
Diesel is projected to average $2.46 per gallon in 2009.
Motor fuel prices will be boosted by higher projected crude oil prices in 2010 and slightly higher refiner margins, the EIA said.
- By Angel Gonzalez, Dow Jones Newswires;713-547-9214; angel.gonzalez@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 11 2009