direction of NG for next 5 - 8 weeks...To discuss: ( drafted Wed )
What relevant supply demand factor
will alter ( a) premise that NG (US) will slip say 7-8 cents average a week
for the next 5-8 weeks ? ( or alternatively just stay flat at best)
All based on likelihood that injection rate stays steady ( for a few weeks)
(with all the hedged sales hanging in)
-Appreciate the efforts of Paffin for fill projections
Of course we can get a pop if a CAT-4 hurricane passes Cuba
( so please don't bore us with that moderate risk - around Sept 3 to 10 )
I've said since early July that risky time for Hurricanes was after Sept 1 ( normal Labour Day )
On top of that , we will likely have a fall/roll-down on Oct future so HNU can't help but fall
for 3-4 weeks
which I think TGAR seems to indicate
So don't "average down " HNU ( sounds like those posters have given up )
Maybe trade for 2 days at a time
but HND has been better as I suggested
And remember Canada is the swing and spot producer for USA
So t:GAS can fall more than nymex NG and is affected by US/CAN exchange
No need to be early so wait 2 weeks or more
Have you noticed the BB has a gut feel bias that NG is to rise
My gut is that it will stay "weak for weeks"
Horizon steps in and does rollbacks when a beta hits about 2.25 ( and adds those in the 3's)
Price too low as/when it is at basic increment of underlying
and also near 2 and 3 cent commission and large blocks can't trade ( institutions)
So they want it in $8 - 12 range
I hope they r/b soon so I can buy with the lower commission - in 3 weeks ( implying it will be 2.35 ? ).
So looks like buying HND on Wed was the move to make
-ahead of the injection report
I note that many jr oil and gas have been climbing lately ( the place to have been )
( ie stocks ahead of NG ) but stocks could take a corrective dip now
Afshaikh - HNU till JAN !?! NEVER hold a futures beta for 5 mo
By "good trade" I hope you mean trade a number of times to Jan
You would exit with a swing profit and re-evaluate to re-enter on a dip ( a number of times)
Good investing
U