My ScenarioHere are the scenarios I don't think it is:
1 - Goldcorp. A quick review of their past transactions over 3 years shows they buy up properties where there is already production underway, or very close to this, and usually it seems after some kind of lawsuit usually involving disgruntled shareholders... "I'm just saying" there is a pattern.
2 - Barrick - Same comments as Goldcorp. Their next acquisition is probably Gammon Lake given that their CEO just resigned and the interim-CEO spent most of his time at Barrick.
3 - Some minor player like APP or SilvoreFox is not taking over OX. I know someone at SilvoreFox, and their office is one block from mine and I can tell you it isn't them doing acquiring, they don't have the experience or cash. They are too early in their exploration. In fact I think both are eventual targets for a take over.
Here are some likely scenarios in order of probability:
1 - Mid Tier producer or Mid-Tier consolidator trying to make a break-out into a new region or keep growing portfolio. Osisko (OSK), Agnico-Eagle (AEM) and Golden River Resources (Australia) come to mind. Through a buy out of some structure. Unlikely that it will be a 100% buy-out, as the present OX shareholders (of which insiders are 10%) will want to benefit from all the upside they are convinced on the property... letting the current owners off all liability is not in the interest of the aquiring company... prevents them from buying a lemon. Most deals seem to be a 60/40 type split with the aquiring company taking a major position, then buying them out at some point when the resource is well proven. Golden River has just taken a big position in Acadian (ADA) down the shore.
2 - A mid-Tier taking a J/V position to provide operational experience to actually build/run the mill. I despise these J/V deals personally, because they usually involve some kind of royalty or revenue sharing, and no one ever really comes out happy and they are prone with lawsuits. If its good enough to partner, buy them, or get bought. J/V is like "friends with benefits", no one is really committed to the other.
3 - A major providing convertable debt financing. They are willing to provide their money, and convert to shares on some triggering event. A way to mitigate risk and potentially participate in the upside. Could leave everyone happy, as it gives managers and insiders a way to proove out the resource and get a higher price when the time comes. All down to the terms offered and your operational capabilities.
Think like the BOD, the questions we should be asking ourselves is:
1. What is the expected amount of money needed to get this mine to production? What is the likelyhood of raising that money, and at what cost?
2. What is the prospect for increasing the size of the deposit? At what cost and time?
3. What is the price of gold going to do, while everyone is getting on the gold band wagon, its likely (just like everywhere else) the smart money is selling their gold that they bought when no one would touch it. If we wait too long the price of gold might tumble (of course some will argue that the sky is falling and it might just keep going.)
4. How does is the offer price per oz of gold match with our expectations of value. The bidder is going to calculate what the present value of the gold is to them. They are going to factor in production costs, financing costs, and the amount of time it will take to get the gold to market. This will result in a "discounted" value of the gold in the ground. For example, even though gold is trading at about $990/oz, we might get a "discounted" price of $200/oz because the acquiring/partner has to do a lot of work and finance it all over several years before we get to a production, and then wait years for all the gold to come in to the coffers. Does this price make sense based on our own internal estimates. Remember this is the price they are setting based only on the resources we've identified to date. Should we ask for more based on the fact we know there is more there?
5. Are there others we could engage in a "bidding war". Are there other players to whom this play would be even more valuable, and might enter a rival/better bid?
The last thing that should be entering into these discussions is how we feel about it.
IMHO this property is worth $0.60 right now, and by the time the 96 missing holes are filled in in January its worth $1.20, and in three years by the time they have proven the entire value of the property at ~5MM oz, the gold is pouring out of the mill (all the risk is removed) and gold is still trading north of $750/oz then it is worth $10/share.
If you are willing to wait 3 years For $10/oz then great, but if you had to take the money right now, what share price would you accept?