RE: This play has run it's course"Sold and am buying IAE, WHICH NOW HAS 5 STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATIOONS. Rumors are circulating after the write up about a huge potential aquisition, (which every one knew was just a matter of time). When it ctches fire 4 to 5 dollars is when it will be time to sell. Never fall in love with your stock, but dump it when the proffit is large. I leave the last 20% to someone else, with the associated risk.
Yabadabadoooooooooo"
mee too - I just dumped all of my Bankers. thanks for the heads up. Please offer me more good advice.
The Bankers operational update today was excellent. No hype and no hyperbole. These guys just keep delivering, and delivering. Of the 100M credit, they have used....0. $61M in the bank and $70+M Working capital net of debt. Plus 7000 bbls per day at 60% of Brent price. These guys are always conservative in what they present. The latest presentation shows that at $70 brent they would get a field price of $38.50. In todays NR they indicate that they average 60% of Brent price (so that would be $42 - $3.5 more per barrel than they have in the presentation). Thats an additional $3.5 per bbl on a netback of $15.15 per barrel - 25% more profit per barrel than they present. In addition they use the Royalty at 23% when new production is actually at 11%. This is why they keep impressing the market - they don't act like a junior. Present the numbers you need to be impressive, then overdeliver.
At 7000 bbl/day they are likley netting somewhere between $18-20/avg - thats $133000/day - $48-50M/yr of netback and they are growing production daily. By year end, netback should be well over $22 and production should be 8200+/day ($65M netback per year ~ $0.25/share assuming 250M shares). If you believe Pickens - oil will be $90 next year so even higher numbers and they should exit 2010 with 13K bbls (conservatively that should be $120M netback in 2011 - 50 cents per share) - with growth of cashflow at 20%.
They must be getting some pretty damned good offers to sell right now.
Too bad I just sold all my shares and bought IAE.