Exactly what I said would happenI posted this this morning:
"So as I said, I am bearish short term, and could easily be bullish medium term, but today's numbers are going to tell a tale. That tale is this: We have like at least 4 builds left. we will reach capacity (or predicted capacity) with average builds of 57.7 bcf in 4 weeks. This cannot be ignored, ESPECIALLY if we have a build today over 60. Why today? well we have had two very cold weeks (and if we look at the forcast, the last two weeks have been colder then is predicted until at least Novemebr) and if we STILL get a build over that, I can't any reason why we would have builds of any less over the next 3, bringing us to the 1st week of November when drawdown USUALLY occurs.
People may be surprised, as the build wasn't that far over estimates......the huge thing here is this: We have at LEAST 4 more weeks of builds left, before we start drawing down (in normal times anyways....it could be longer in these times). All we needed was an avg of 57.7 per week to reach max cap in those 4 weeks. We've done that now, so only 3 more to go.
Because, as the weather bugs kept telling us, the last two weeks have been among the coldest in recent memories....but if it's THAT cold, and the most they can muster up is a 58 bcf, then that means very bad news for nat gas in the omcing weeks. It's supposed to get much warmer, and very mild starting this Monday and going into November. Look for 65+ builds the rest of the month that puts us on pace to raeach projected max cap by early Nov.
As I said, I believe these numbers will be decisive, and IMO they were. This will, I believe, be the start of a gradual downtrend in NG that will be propelled every Thursday as we get injections of 60+ every week.
It will take a miracle to stop it now, and HND is a huge 'buy' at this point.