Interesting report from the EIANatural Gas Weekly Update
https://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp
Here's some excerpts that I find interesting.
"...The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that the upcoming winter would be 1 percent warmer than both last winter and the 30-year average "
"....The spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub averaged $3.06 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in September, which is $0.17 per Mcf lower than the average spot price in August. EIA expects prices at the Henry Hub to average $3.85 per Mcf in 2009"
So considering every single futures contract is above the EIA's estimate, what does taht say for HNU? After all Dec is $5.42 right now........That means that for HNU to make any money Dec needs to go higher then that. There's $1.57 between the two prices, and I don't believe the EIA would be THAT wrong on them. Of course, they dont' knwo everything, but if come Dec gas is anywhere near $5.42, then the EIA guys are way, way off. Considering this is what they do, I doubt they would be that off.