TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
overthehill11on Oct 29, 2009 2:18am
225 Views
Post# 16433970
RE: AAA has 80 million shares
RE: AAA has 80 million sharesThis is a good board where informed opinions abound so if I may I'll add one more. 80 million shares for a company with this much going for it is a gift in the extreme IMO. As far as Chinaco and their penny-anti so-called bid is concerned, well all I can say to them is either go big or go home. Potash may not be the sparkling jewel it was a short while ago but as I understand it, people still eat and no country eats more than China. They can go with hat in hand to the other producers in this world to see just how far they have to bend over to make a deal but eventually they will tire of the game. Or they can become a serious producer themselves with other peoples product as well as their own.
They are tough to deal with as they exploit their own to an almost barbaric degree so what would they do to us if they saw our hats in hand? Better get used to bending over or become one of the first line suppliers before they hold all of the aces. What happened to manufacturing outsourcing will happen to potash suppliers soon but like the early manufactures, the best potash deposits dangled in front of their greedy little eyes will have a hypnotic effect but only if we don't bend over.
So what do we actually have that will make them show their hand? In everything I've read from engineering reports to NR's to well thought out posts, I'm still not absolutely certain about the amount of potash we can count on. In rough terms we have 100 million tons @ 20% so is that 80 million tons of rock holding 20 million tonnes of good stuff or do we really have the full load? Even at 20 million tonnes and the ease they will have to get it out would put the price over the pittance that has been bandied about in some circles but potash ain't copper and the stuff lays flat like snow so I think it's safe to say we have the five-fold total. Ah but what about the 90% of ground still not drilled or explored to any degree? The engineering types suggest we may have ten times the hundred million tonnes which would make that a billion tonne deposit, right? But lets stay grounded for a while longer and just add half of that , so increase that 100 million tonnes by a very doable factor of five. And some would think it's still worth a buck and change? Through it all, please remember that the last time Farhad Abasov sold a potash company he picked up a cheque for $1.8 Billion...thats a billion with a "B" I'm sure he didn't sell me his shares at 21 cents like someone else did.
Lets average the world price for the stuff and I think one tonne would fetch a $500 bill, so how much will it cost to get that tonne? About $60 which is probably the cheapest on the planet. Coupled that with perhaps the fastest deposit to production and what would our little gem be worth now with a paltry 80 million shares outstanding? My calculator won't go that high but I'm sure the Chinese have one that will. This is an unbelievable situation that only comes along in other peoples lives but then again, other people wouldn't give away the store. I think management here is as good as the deposit and with that combination, we have this play by the 'nads....but don't bend over.
overthehill11