RE: GDP upBe very careful with the latest GDP numbers......gov't sponsered economic growth isn't "true" economic growth, and it cannot be sustained.
I think Q4 will bring a lot of things back to reality, mostly equities and oil.
A closer look at the GDP data
https://bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=16&Freq=Qtr&FirstYear=2007&LastYear=2009
Shows that of the 3.5% growth, 2.28% of it was from goods....and of THAT number, more then half (1.66% of the total 3.5%) was auto sales from teh cash for clunkers program.
How popular was that program? Well, auto sales had a year over year gain of.....wait for it......157%.
That's huge, and most likely, anybody who ever planned on buying a car in the next year did it during that program....auto sales should crater over the next 6 months.
A look over that list shows that the vast majority of the "growth" was casuse by gov't stimulus.....most of which is either stopped, or will be stopping soon......it is not a true recovery...you cannot have a true recovery when unemployment is still rising, and could offcially be in double digits on the report relased Nov 6 (There are many who say we're already in double digits)
The fact si, the data that cannot be massaged (unemployment, housing etc.) is not getting better, and indeed getting worse.....the data taht can be (sales, spending, company profits) is creating the false impression that things are getting better.
When the "hard" data starts getting positive, then I'll be convinced....that isn't ahppeneing yet.