tmm mentionMexico: Gold’s Next Powerhouse Player
Marc Davis
BNW Business News Wire
Posted Nov 4, 2009
Asthe world’s key gold producing nations struggle mostly in vain toreplenish dwindling below-ground supplies, Mexico is bucking the trendin a big way.
That’s right. It’s not a typo. We are indeed talking about gold, not silver.
Evenfactoring-in the world’s other emerging gold producing nations, Mexicostill stands head and shoulders above the crowd. In fact, only Mexicohas experienced impressive year-on-year production growth over the lastdecade. This has culminated in an almost doubling of output since 1998to 1.59 million ounces last year. No other nation comes close tomatching such a promising statistic.
Itis worth noting that global gold output hit an all-time high of 68.83million ounces in 1999. Yet, worldwide production last year representedan almost 20% shortfall at 55.30 million ounces, which clearlyillustrates a troubling trend. The situation has been exacerbated bythe fact that the world’s top trio of gold producers – South Africa,the US, and Australia – are losing their luster. In fact, they haveseen their combined output slump even more precipitously than elsewhereover the last decade. Dropping from 35.12 million ounces to 21.66million ounces in 2008, this amounts to a 62% slide.
Thisis all the more problematic for the mining industry when consideringthe fact that gold prices have more than tripled over the last decade.This represents a decline in revenues of around US $14 billion dollars(based on current bullion spot prices).
Yet,there’s nothing but ‘blue sky’ upside for Mexico’s ever-expanding goldmining industry. Especially since only about 15% of thismining-friendly, geologically fertile nation has ever beensystematically explored for the yellow metal. This is largely becausethe country’s foreign investment laws were prohibitively restrictivefor centuries until it signed the North American Free Trade Agreementin the early 1990s. Only then did Mexico finally adopt transparentmining legislation that offers a level playing field to foreigninvestors, which is also sweetened with plenty of business incentives,such as a very competitive corporate tax structure.
Thispivotal development ushered in a modern-day Gold Rush that now involvesover 250 mostly Canadian foreign companies with at least 600 projectsunderway – the vast majority of which were financed on Toronto’s twomining-oriented stock exchanges. And, at least US $6.5 billion dollarsin mining investment has poured into Mexico in 2008-09, alone.
Furtherreinforcing Mexico’s ascendancy to the prestigious ranks of the world’sleading gold producers is the fact that 2010 promises to be a banneryear. (Figures for 2009 are obviously not yet available but areexpected to reveal yet another boost over the year before, albeit amodest one). In fact, output is expected to jump by an additional860,000 ounces next year, representing a 54% increase over 2008’sfigure.
However,it must be noted that Mexico is by no means one of the most prolificproducers in the world – at least not yet. Its output in 2008 waseclipsed by the world’s top three producers, as well as Peru, whichearned fourth place at 5.78 million ounces.
Mexico’sproduction last year was also still well below Canada (3.04 millionounces) and Ghana (2.58 million ounces). It is now jostling forposition a short distance behind with only about half a dozen otheremerging gold producing nations – all of whom have more or lesscomparable production numbers. Yet, while Mexico’s annual output isaccelerating, the other players are showing signs of fatigue, asdemonstrated by their mostly unvarying year-on-year output figures orby numbers that are clearly falling off the pace.
Sohow is Mexico managing to reinvent itself as a high-octane goldproducer after being so synonymous with silver mining for the past fivecenturies? Well, a number of North America’s high-flying gold producersand legions of junior gold explorers are increasingly viewing Mexico asthe optimum mining jurisdiction to do business. So says JeffreyChristian, Managing Director of the New York-based CPM Group, a leadingcommodities research, consulting, asset management and investmentbanking organization.
“Mexicorepresents one of the most attractive places in the world for mining,not only in terms of geology but also for its political, economic andregulatory environment. There is also a pro-mining mentality in Mexico.The country is very much open for business,” Christian says. “Also manygood quality deposits have gone relatively unexploited over thecenturies.”
Conversely,an increasing number of other emerging gold-producing nations arebeginning to raise barriers to the building of mines by foreign miningcompanies. In extreme cases, this involves the nationalization of richmineral finds that have been developed by well-financed North Americanmining companies, Christian adds. Ironically, these protectionistregimes include underdeveloped economies that have benefited from anincrease in gold output in recent years thanks to the influx of NorthAmerican investment dollars.
NorthAmerican mining companies are not having much better luck on their ownsoil, he says. “Even in the United States and Canada the barriers toobtaining mine production permits have become greater and greater,”Christian says. For instance, “anti-mining groups” can use the legalsystem to win a succession of court injunctions, which may delay thecommissioning of a mine for years on end, he explains.
Hence,an increasing number of frustrated mining companies are turning theirattention to Mexico, where they are mostly developing large silverdeposits – ones where gold and base metals constitute meaningfulby-products. But low-cost, near-surface primary gold deposits are alsobeing targeted – some of which are under-developed past producers thathistorically suffered from a lack of investment capital.
Perhapsthe best example of how this strategy is paying off in a big wayinvolves the world’s fifth largest gold producer, Vancouver-basedGoldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) (TSX: G), which just initiated production atits world-class gold/silver Penasquito mine in Zacatecas StateinOctober. The mine hosts at least 13 million ounces of gold and isscheduled to start yielding up to 500,000 ounces of gold per year in2010.
Meanwhile,Vancouver-basedTimmins Gold Corp. (TSX.V: TMM) is scheduled before the year’s end tobecome Mexico’s next primary gold producer. One of only several juniormining companies to date to earn this distinction, Timmins Gold justannounced a US $15 million debt financing to commercialize its open-pit(low cost) San Francisco mine, which is situated near the US border inSonora State. The company is on target to produce up to 100,000 goldounces a year.
CompanyPresident Bruce Bragagnolo says Mexico is an ideal mining jurisdictionto work in, especially due to its streamlined mine permitting process.This is illustrated by the fact that his company will have gone from astanding start to pouring its first gold bar in three short years.(Thisis approximately half the time it typically takes to clear all thelegal and political hurdles involved in developing a gold mine in NorthAmerica).
“It’sbeen a relatively easy process from a mine permitting standpoint,”Bragagnolo explains. “Also the local government and the localpopulation are on-side as we’re in an underdeveloped area that needsjobs. Additionally, there’s great infrastructure in place, we can evenwork year-round.”
“We’realso benefiting from low capital costs and we’re going to be producingas inexpensively as around $400 an ounce,” he adds.
Unlikevarious other junior gold miners that also aspire to become mid-tierproducers, Timmins Gold has no intention of diversifying into projectselsewhere in the world, according to Bragagnolo.
“Wehave all the right dynamics right here in Mexico for us to grow into amuch bigger company by way of organic growth and through propertyacquisitions,” he says. “In the near-term, we have excellentexploration potential around the mine. So our immediate goal is todouble our reserve base and therby double the mine life.”
MeanwhileToronto-based Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) (TSX: AEM) is also set tobegin full-scale production at its Pinos Altos gold/silver mine in thecoming weeks. The mine is expected to generate 190,000 ounces of gold ayear. Moreover, Idaho-based Coeur d’Alene (NYSE: CDE) (TSX: CDM) isaiming to produce 72,000 ounces a year from its new Palmerejogold/silver mine, which was commissioned last spring.
Marc Davis
BNWBusiness News Wire
email: editor@smallcapmedia.com