KinrRE: RE: RE: $70,000,000 profit missing from reKinross was up yesterday sharply at around 2:30 PM, just like all the other gold majors were.......rest assured, nobody "forgot" about the $70 million you bring up, and it certianly doesn't work like you said.....a rise in one day cannot be multiplied by the amount of gold produced in a year to give you a profit......what kind of valuation is that?
If you want to get more accurate, then yesterday's $35 rise made Kinross a profit (that did not exist before yesterdays rise) of about $250,000, far from $70 million.......if we divide their 2.5 million onuces a year by 365, we get a very rough guide that says that Kinross produced about 6800 ounces yesterday.....only those ones will share in this proft.....the ounces that were already mined have already been sold at whatever the price was at that time (anywhere from the high $800 to $1060) and the ounces that have yet to be mined may have a far different gold price....could be much higher, could be much lower.
The sharp selloff was not because people "forgot" that Kinross mines gold, and therfore, the recent $35 rise in the POG was somehow overlooked.....it was because the quarterly reports were bad, but that's not the main reason.
It is because the 2010 production expectations have been lowered to 2.2 million ounces/year, which means that growth for the company is pretty much limited to where it is now, and the only hope one has for any upside from here is a huge rise in the POG....
I know you can't tell a gold bug that gold will not be $5,000 by next Friday, but the fact is this....gold has recently had a huge run, and that is due to a sverely weak US dollar.....but the US is not going to keep their dollar low forever, it WILL stabalize at that point, and all commodities and equities are going to crash.....understand they ARE in a bubble right now, because there is so much cheap money out there to borrow and put into any and all asset classes.
Sooner or later (could be sooner, if the economic numbers keep coming out good) the Fed is going to raise interest rates, and that is going to signal the start of the dollar rebound.
Not sure if you know this or not, but the short position on the USD right now is the higherst it has ever been in history....because people sold short the dollar to buy other assets.....when the signal comes that the dollar has hit a bottom (which will likely be a tightening of interst rates) then massive amounts of short positions are going to need to be covered, and that money will come from liquidating equities and commodities.......the big boys will surely be the first ones out, leaving a whole lot of retail guys on the wrong side of the trade.
Ask yourself this, and if you are an experienced investor, this will mean something to you: Everybody and their dog "knows" that gold is going "to da moon!" right?......the few who are predicitng a gold crash are labelled crazy or insane......so in your experience, when everybody lines up on the same sid eof the trade, what usually happens?...the exact opposite, of course.
Way, way too many people "know" that gold is going to skyrocket......when the guy who serves me dinner is talking about how gold is going through the roof, I get very sceptical