RE: winter has arrivedNov is still forecast to be above seasonal for msot of it....snow in Canada anywhere is irrelevent....you need it to get cold in the North East and Mid West.....
This hurricane could possibly be a game changer for the bulls OR the bears.
Here are the factors:
Bulls - First of all, do you know how many hurricanes have hit the Gulf in Nov? The answer is....zero. (only 4 storms have ever made ilandfall before, all in FLA, all Cat 1)..It has not happened, ever, in recorded history. So this could very well be significant.....HOWEVER, it has to get there first....since this is an unusal hurricane path, it is hard to predict accurately what will happen. It still has to go over the mountains in Nicaragua, which will certainly weaken it.....even if it does make it into the Gulf intact, hurricane only strengthen over water, and there is not much in the Gulf before it hits landfall again.......considering Ida is only a Cat 1, it will almost certainly not be ahurricane by the time it gets to the Gulf.....it will very likely strengthen once it hits the Gulf, but will it be enough to get back to Cat 1, or higher (preferably)? If it can, this could very well be a game changer for the bulls.
Bears - Obviously, the opposite of everything posted above......you don't want thi sto strengthen to a Cat-1 or higher once it gets to the Gulf....BUT....if it does not, and only hits as an "insignificant" tropical storm, then this could be significant as well. I put "insignifcant" in quotes because even though it may not be a hurricane, it will still be a huge storm....not enough to affect production (which would be bullish) but it will very likely spin off a warm spell that could last a week or more over the Eastarn seaboard.....this of course, with the current fundamentals, could be quite bearish, as it could allow for injections for a week or 2 longer then is normal........capacity is essentailly full right now (which is why producing only injected 1 bcf last week.,....it is full or very near to it) so any weeks of unexpeted builds could be a veyr bearish signal.
At this point it is too far away to see which way this will effect NG.....We need to wait until the weekend to see what Ida does over Central America, and what kind og shape it enters the Gulf at.