RE: RE: RE: winter has arrived"Not sure about your Eastern seabord theory looking at its trojectory"
No, it is not the storm itself that will warm the seaboard, it will certainly not reach that far.....because of the pressure associated with hurricanes, they generally "push" the air in front of them....because this one is coming from the tropics, it is very likely to "push" warm tropical air out of it's way, up and into the middle and eastarn parts of the country......
the air inside a hurrican is much denser.....think of a blob of water if you ran a stream of oil into it.....that is similar to the forces at work.
As for the it haing no effect, I would disagree......there's a lot of if's but IF Ida became a cat-2 or more in the Gulf, and IF it smacked into rigs with force, and IF they were knocked out, then that would certainly effect the price of NG, if only for the short term based on spec.
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After all, we saw Dec go to over $6 just 2 weeks ago because of spec money playing a mid Oct cold snap....I think it's dangerous to assume that this would not have any effect......certainly I agree with you that FUNDAMENTALLY it won't have much of an effect, and it wouldn't make a difference to medium or long term prices, but in the very short term of a few weeks,a hurricane in the Gulf would absolutely have an effect.....if it was only spec money.
But short term spec money can be very powerful.