RE: Alfa Bank ReportGreat information, thanks Chris. This is a brave guy for writing the article, as did anyone notice that another opposition politician in Russia was just found murdered. They are simply so screwed up, it is not a place where democracy actually has any meaning at all, and you are not supposed to challenge or question much of anything. Like the situation here, your supposed rights are ALL window dressing and BS. And few will stand up to them, including it appears the Canadian authorities.
I was actually happy when the deal fell through with Opel, because who knows, maybe GM saw something they did not like with our Russian friends, who were just going to finance the deal of course, no other monkey business.
As I said previously, IF HRG was a U.S. company they would not tolerate this activity, which has gone on here (IMO) AND they would have done something some time ago. Things may slip through in the U.S., like the Madoff thing, but when they get on something they follow it up. Contrast the Candian authorities with their approach, which appears to be, the do nothing, pass the responsibility, and be typically beaurocratic with little productivitiy.imo
We still have folks who question the Russian end game. The end game is obvious, take out the minority shareholders for as little as possible. Do not promote or let value assert until this has been accomplished, or at least attempt everything which can be done to accomplish this firs. Push hard, as the Canadian authorities appear useless, so why not attempt anything. , beyond writing this plot down and sending it directly to the TSX and OSC, where even then probably nothing would happen!!! As often said, if it were not so pathetic, it would make a good sit com.
So what can we expect? They keep the price within 10% or so, on average, of their desired placement price of .38 at the close, so they can "justify" the price. And of course, again, the Canadian authorities will say - uh du look, see how the price justifies .38 we are watching carefully though!! LOL
I think the key elements here remain the same: delay, the real time frame Severstal is working under, core group who hold out and the price of gold. Given certain variables, they will come to the table. If not, I think a class action suit will come, were they to somehow succeed in wresting the shares (or more correctly stated stealing them - imo - definitely) from the remaining minority shareholders, or doing something we as yet have not even contemplated. I mean, does anybody trust these folks, do they even trust each other?
Of course if the gold price continues up, even they will have problems, but their answer to date, in case nobody notices, is to slowly increase the offering price, or the price they do deals at. Always WAY under what seems to be the value at the moment in time, of course. The time thing works like this: they have their own issues, big ones at Severstal. If they want to sell, as for example per the article re the Chinese, then they have time constraints both to do that, and to satisfy their own financial needs (mess at Severstal). Thus delay component may be very real tactic.
If gold goes to $1500, does anyone think they can keep the price in the .38-.42 range? Probably the Canadian authorities!
Cheers. The saga continues, every day at the close!