100 different scenarios....TO1, you're posts have a lot of information, a lot I agree with, especially about market cap vs sp. I would point out that if CGX finds oil, there will be several differeNt scenarios and options to raise cash, jv or option. For example, they could find oil on the georgetown concession and sell their interest, using the money to do further drilling and/or development on corentyne. That's a possibility, but my point is that this company is not a "one hole wonder" or "one shot deal". They may or may not be successful, but they have several chances to succeed and the means/financing for probably a few wells. .
I also agree that it's hard to make a valuation without knowing the jv terms. That is key.
I sense that you discounted the validity of the Shell discovery at Arbary as insignificant because Shell walked away from it. Hard to image, but in 1975, when you had an in well blow out without reaching your target, it would not be economical to drill it again, simple as that. The price of OIL did not support it in a region with zero infrastructure. They hadn't reached their target and they had already found oil. This is a very significant discovery and that is why CGX paid for additional seisemic over the arbary so they could interpret it as well as Repsol and Tullow.
About dilution, Kerry said many times that they would not go into drilling on georgetown with 15mil and will need to raise cash, so expect another pp before drilling georgetown, and as far as corentyne, we just don't know until a deal is worked out.
When the sp was trading at $4.50, Kerry said that CGX was "very undervalued". Two things happened, the first big hit to the sp was Noble hit a duster in suriname. Then the US companies started dumping large and the markets went to hell in a handbasket along with CGX. Those that picked up late last year were smart.
I remember reading your posts TO1 from the oilexco boards, so you know very well the potential CGX has. All the same could be said before Oilexco started drilling in the north sea, and they were very successful until they lost their line of credit in the market crunch. I personally think CGX has way more potential than Oilexco did if they do find oil.
I don't see any reasons why not to invest in CGX right now, only upside. I believe anyone can buy now and sell long before they reach TD and make a good return.
GLTA