RE: Time to go long.5kWell, yes and no......I agree that when the turnaround comes, it's going to be hard and fast....I have also liquidated all my short positions, as I believe the downside for NG is somewhat limited from here.....
But that doesn't mean the turnaround has to happen "within 24 hours" as you suggest.....in fact, I think the #1 thing that is going to cause a snap rally is going to be a surprise cold forecast over a 1-2 week period. Exactly the kind of thing that happened in October.
You say NG is sitting close to a 52 week low.....not really. The prompt month in early Septembr (which would have been Oct) traded as low as $3.50......the prompt month currently is $4.51, so it still has a ways to go if it wants too. It should be noted that should Nov go to that, HNU would trade around $6.19.....not saying it will, or it is even likely, but it is something to keep in mind.
As of right now, there is balmy temps due to Ida in the NE and Mid West for the next week or so.....this has already been projected to delay drawdown by at least one week, it is currently forcasted to draw in the last week of Nov.
I would wait ofr a weather event before going long NG at this point.....with the weather the way it is, and storage an issue again due to the prolonged build season, I don't see any reason for a reversal without some strong weather-help.