GREY:MAAFF - Post by User
Comment by
pangloss81on Nov 27, 2009 9:25pm
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Post# 16532226
RE: RE: Tip for monday! Hold your shares early
RE: RE: Tip for monday! Hold your shares earlyDont count your chickens before they are hatched !
Indeed!
I am way, way overweight MAA. Probably stupidly so. I am with you crazy, that i expected some payback by now. Time does matter. However, I definitely have faith that in the medium term it is a near can't miss. They have cash, diverse holdings, proven resources and rights to further exploration. Several other potash companies are actually citing MAA as reasons to invest in them. IMO, however, management does not have a proven record and we have hit more than a hiccup here. This has been six months or so of limbo. We are, in my judgment, in a lopsided relationship. I think that it is possible that MAA itself does not know what is going on, and that we are caught up in Chinese machinations. That is what MAA meant when they talked about the "iterative process"--ie that it is layered, bureaucratic and seemingly repetitive.
I am betting that it is wildly optimistic to expect good news monday morning. IMO the best thing that we can hope for, on monday, is a bit of transparency. It is a very brave call to predict good news. I think that Number is going out on a limb, with an eyes-closed swing for the fences prediction. As you said yourself, Number, none of us really no what is going on. I put the chances of closing the deal on monday at 10%.
For me, the question is: can they prop up the sp with a bit of positivity within a NR announcing another extension? OR Will they end exclusivity? A short term fear is that MAA is so much in the dark that they can't throw us a bone...that we will get another empty quote from Mr. Da Nu.
Worse yet, if SH is like MAA, we could get a quote from Da Nu Jr ;-)