RE: RE: RE: News coming????The forecast for the German market has changed completely within the past few days. The consensus was that the drop in feed in tarifs for 2010 would cause a 4th quarter rush followed by a slowdown in 2010. Now Photon consulting and others are saying that prices are dropping faster than expected leading to higher than forecasted margins for PV installations.
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https://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/photon_magazine_survey_puts_german_pv_installations_as_high_as_4gw/
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Photon Magazine survey puts German PV installations as high as 4GW
As2009 draws to an end, a new annual survey undertaken by PhotonMagazine, based on a sample of 119 grid operators, as well asinformation from inverter manufacturers, puts the PV installations inGermany at between 3GW and 4GW for the year. The figure is much higherthan Germany’s Federal Environment Ministry estimates as well as thosefrom major system integrator Phoenix Solar,however inline with Photon Consulting’s most recent forecast of 3.85GW.Total installed PV power could reach the 10GW mark in Germany by theend of the year and could reach 2% of Germany’s electricity productionin 2011.
However, on a more controversial point Photon believes that theGerman feed-in tariff should actually be lowered more than is currentlyplanned as production costs have fallen dramatically. This will resultin the cost of solar being artificially higher than it needs to be andtherefore potentially damage future adoption.
“The highgrowth statistics are proof of the extent to which PV isunderestimated. But because solar electricity makes a considerablecontribution to halting climate change, this growth should beaccelerated, more along the lines of 10GW per year in Germany,” notedAnne Kreutzmann, Editor-in-Chief of Photon Magazine. “To make such ahigh rate of growth possible, the German feed-in tariff for solarelectricity must be decreased to a greater degree than originallyplanned. In the meantime, mass production has led to very lowproduction costs for solar modules. In light of the climatecatastrophe, we shouldn’t keep solar electricity artificially moreexpensive than it needs to be, since this would damage solar’s socialacceptance if we are to achieve the growth levels we need."
Photonhad previously campaigned to see a more aggressive FiT reduction inGermany, however there would seem to be little attempt by the newGerman Government to change the current rate drops already in place for2010. Instead, changes are now expected to be made to the FiT in 2010for subsequent years, though these have yet to be revealed.
The US market looks to be taking off as well.
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/solar_pipeline_at_u.s._utilities_reaches_4.8gw_eer_reports_21.5gw_of_solar_/
Solar pipeline at U.S. utilities reaches 4.8GW: EER reports 21.5GW of solar power generation in 2020
A new detailed study of the U.S. utility market for solarapplications by market research firm, Emerging Energy Research (EER)highlights the current and future pipeline of PV installations expectedfrom the U.S. utilities. The utility-scale PV project pipeline hasalready reached 4.8GW with utilities expected to add a further 21.5GWto their generation portfolios between 2009 and 2020. Compared to the77 MW of utility-driven projects currently operating, an explosion inthe market is rapidly gaining momentum.
According to EER's study, utilities have been catalyzed into actionby the regulatory pressures at the state and national levels as well asthe widespread cost reductions in the PV sector. This has also beenhelped by fossil fuel price volatility and overarching carbon concerns,the report notes. With the versatility of solar power, utilities canleverage multi-pronged strategies.
EER has also forecastedthat the US PV market will accelerate between 2011 and 2015, growingfrom 2GW in 2011 to 12GW in 2015, more than a 460% increase.
"Unlikeother larger, centralized power generation technologies such as naturalgas, wind, concentrated solar power, and geothermal, PV offers scaleand unique siting versatility," says EER Solar Research Director, ReeseTisdale. "If PV's declining economic forecasts come to fruition tofoster more widespread demand -- centralized, commercial, andresidential segments -- utilities will want to be at the industry'sforefront to shape the market in their favour."
The reporthighlights that the conservative utilities market is starting toembrace PV technology, in particular c-Si and CdTe thin filmtechnologies, especially when PV manufacturers take a direct role inprojects and risks associated.
However,EER is more sceptical about CPV technology adoption, citing the costreductions seen in conventional c-Si and some thin film technologiesthat are now squeezing CPV previous lower cost-per-watt capabilities.CPV is now hampered by the lack of deployment compare to conventionalmodules, further curtailing its potential attractiveness to utilities.
Thereport also identifies the growing use of trackers for projects asutilities try to maximise investments. According to EER, utilitiesusing trackers increase output by 20% to 30% when tracking systems aredeployed. EER said that 712MW of PV projects that have been announcedwill utilize tracking systems.
PPAswould also continue to be the primary method of utility PV procurement.However, the share of projects being owned by utilities is likely to be30% to 45% between 2009 and 2011, as utilities take advantage ofnational incentives and increase their comfort with and understandingof PV. EER expects 16.1GW of PPAs are likely to be signed by 2020.