RE: RE: RE: RE: PredictionBeavertail - You are correct in that an extreme winter is not prced in.....as long term weather forecast are notoriously unreliable (say, anything longer then 2 weeks out) then we can be sure that only a seasonal winter is priced in, NOT an extreme one......and if we DO have an extreme one, then look for NG prices to go up.....
But if we accept that as a possibility (which I do) then we must also realize that just like a colder then average winter is not priced in, neither is a milder then average....so it cuts both ways....even though winter is priced in, if it is milder then normal, look for even more weakness.....
I'm not weatherman, so I won't even attempt to call weather that far out...that's not my area of expertise....I'm just pointint out that both are possible.
You also made this point about gold:
"All gold bugs talks about is how much money is printed. They don't talk about this is a temporary emergency situation and the money will be withdrawn from the system when the economy can stand on its own two fee"
That is a good point, and not one that gold bugs or inflationistas like to talk about....yes the gov't has printed massive amounts of money....but has anyone noticed why inflation hasn't gone up? It's because this money is not out into the system yet, so it's a moot point.....the gov't can print 1 Quadrillion if it wnats, but if the money doesn't make it into the money supply, it will not matter......as of right now, the vast majority is sitting in vaults owend by the big banks or the Fed......the vast majority of TARP funds haven't been touched yet.inflation scenarios that people are putting out......but my guess is all tha liquidity will be squeezed out of the system before it ever gets close to that.
People don't realize that as easily as the Fed can create money they can also remove it.....when inflation becomes apparent, they will take steps to fix it.