RE: RE: RE: RE: 2009 The year of PatienceHi David,
I share your feelings of disenchantment, 2009 was rough for AMA. Do what you will in Q1, I will be holding until at least the end of calendar Q3 unless I get some signs that the L3 deal is somehow going off the rails - which I doubt. I believe the management at AMA is too experienced and intelligent to let that happen.
It may happen that AMA announces new orders during Q1 but personally I don't expect too much albeit there are real possibilities as they continue to work the commercial side.
I expect nothing from Meggitt or China and don't care. If something is going to happen with SNC I expect it would take until late Q2/early Q3 by the time the technology is right and "program specific" t's & c's are signed with the US military - all of which will be held confidential.
The AMA deal with L3 is a huge opportunity for them and they are agressively pursuing growth. It is a complex integration and AMA offers sound technology and fast track STC's, but again from a technology adoption prespective it is somewhat cumbersome. I have confidence that L3 will make it happen and that once they do commercial agreements and analyst coverage will commence and the stock will probably react quite strongly.
It's an invesment that I have to continue to be patient with even though I realize there may be some 'dead zones' where support gets tested while we wait for news - but none of us can accurately predict the timing and magnitude for contracts. I'm waiting for pilot program announcements on the commercial side which could occur anytime during H1 and add some confidence that real contracts and revenue will materialize.
I am concerned that SNC is almost exclusively military and that L3 is 90% military - I wonder if there are/will be any conflicts brewing here?
I am also still concerned with the recent inside director sale of 1.1M shares @ .55. I commmened on this earlier and would still like to understand the motivation for the sale and who the buyer was. It only makes sense that it was transfer of assets to a family member for tax purposes IMO? Why else would you sell if you thought there was great upside to the stock. I wil be watching insider activity thru Q1/2.
The wait is painful but I think AMA is positioned as well as It could possibly be for success in 2010.
Good luck,
Dan