Just thinking out loudHi I'm new to this thread
I bought some stock at 70cents a few weeks ago based on the technicals but now I'm doing some DD. I know wrong order but so far I'm in the black so I'm smiling.
So I read the slides in this link
https://www.slideshare.net/Equicom/protox-therapeutics-august-2009-corporate-presentationIt was interesting, got me hooked and now I'm thinking long term
So they have very little money left in the bank and need to raise money. How much let's calculate.
Somebody on the board said they were burning $25,000 per patient. That's pretty low and usually it's much higher let's say it's $50,000 per patient for Phase III. Phase II is now complete; it's the dosing stage...how much can we give before the person for it to work as best as possible without making them vomit. :)
Phase III is the efficacy stage. This is the one that will provide them the stats to present to the FDA. From what I can tell from where I work it has to be at least 300 persons for statistical significance to compare against others' results.
So 300x$50,000 = $15M
Let's be optimistic and say they decide to raise the cash at $1 / share on the market. They need 15M shares.
They have 84M shares + 15M brings them to roughly 100M shares...not a bad dilution. If they succeed to get the FDA to finally approve a new drug then I suggest they look to be bought out by a big pharmaceutical company.
But let's say they're crazy and try it on their own they need more shares. The price will have skyrocketed into the multi $ range. They only need a few million shares more. Let's say 10M more bringing it to 110M.
So what do I think the stock price will be in 2 years?
Let's assume 10% market share of a $3B industry.
$300M/yr with 110M shares.
That is approximately a company with $500M market cap or in other words $5/share
so if they get to $2-3/share this year I'm going to start selling.....a bit.
So can anyone tell me if this is truly a single dose or is it (more realistically) a daily/weekly/monthly dose drug?
As for the NR, they must report within 48 hours of knowing the final data. If they haven't released anything yet then they are having their data verified by a third party. That means it's not bad which means they're going to phase III.......It's looking good. I envy all those who bought in at
.50 or lower.