re: re:Analyst report
This is what my broker sent over, best I can do cabbie. I dont have the other one.
Versant
PROTOX THERAPEUTICS
Positive Phase II TRIUMPH data enhance partnership potential for lead drug PRX302
Recommendation: BUY
Symbol/Exchange: PRX/TSX
Sector: Healthcare & Biotechnology
All dollar values in C$ unless otherwise noted.
Current price:
.82
One-year target: $1.75 3
Dividend/dividend yield: NA
Target return: 113%
EVENT
Protox reported positive data from its 92-patient
Phase II benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) trial
(TRIUMPH trial) testing lead drug PRX302.
BOTTOM LINE
Highly positive and valuation revised accordingly.
Phase II PRX302/BPH data should be attractive to
partners that we expect to fund future PRX302
clinical testing. Protox’s Q3/09 cash was $4.1M
and operating expenses were $2M so we believe
Protox has sufficient capital to fund operations to
mid-2010, but not to fund future trials.
Maintaining BUY, target increased to $1.75
(was $1.00), based on NPV, 25x EPS, 15x EV-to-
EBITDA (F2016 estimates, 35% discount rate).
FOCUS POINTS
: Excluding drop-outs (comparable number of
placebo and PRX302 patients), PRX302-treated
patients showed average improvement of IPSS
scores from baseline of 9.1 at three months
compared to 5.8 for placebo. Strong statistical
significance with p-value of 0.24; placebo quite
high but similar to other recent BPH trials.
: Performance better in patients with more severe
BPH; in those patients (40 in total), PRX302-
treated patients showed average IPSS
improvement of 10.8 at three months (5.8 for
placebo unchanged). Recall patients in openlabel
Phase I/II trials exhibited IPSS
improvement of up to 11 points so PRX302 data
similar to prior trials.
: One-year follow-up data expected in H2/10, but
we expect cash-contributing partners to show
tangible interest before then; our model assumes
more comprehensive Phase II/III trial could start by H1/11.