All hope is not lostAloush - I can sympathize with you for getting in near the high water mark (no pun intended) One thing is for certain and that is that you can never time the market. There never is a perfect time to enter or to sell. In hind sight there certainly is, but unless you are clairvoyant, and I certainly am not, you can only go with your best guess.
As it turns out, Diaz's drills have dug up news that is merely average, definitely not spectacular, and their really good well has been struck down by the sand and water problem. Instead of increasing production Diaz has stayed stuck in neutral.
Welcome to the world of petroleum exploration. The crystal ball is a bit cloudy and sometimes we are disappointed, and I certainly am. Nevertheless I am optimistic for a few reasons. First of all Diaz should be able to bring in some production from the five planned wells. Nothing big here, but we should expect a steady increase in production. The natural gas properties are a wild card that could play a role if gas prices accelerate in the near future. In the last few years, the NA tight gas plays have brought mind boggling amounts of gas onto the market and have crushed prices, so gas prices are definitely going to be hard to predict.
How will the stock do you ask? Assuming that Diaz's company presentation is correct, they should be able to double their boepd within the next 12 months. So, assuming the worst, we should be able to make our way to
.40 and if things go the way iamwcw has envisoned the stock may break the $1.00 level beyond that time frame. I expect we are at a low point right now and the stock will rise. If company guidance is correct and they are able to exit 2010 at around 800 boepd then the share price ought to be near the
.70 range assuming a conservative $60,000 per flowing barrel. Heading into mid 2011 one dollar should be easily attained.
Hope that helps, and hope that my conservative guesses are in the ball park.
PS: Husky could take out Diaz, but that is not likely unless Bob Lamond the CEO, who owns a huge block of shares agrees to sell. Right now I think he wants to run the company and make it a success.