GREY:DULMF - Post by User
Comment by
junior_mineron Jan 18, 2010 2:47am
348 Views
Post# 16689418
RE: RE: Thank you THEBIGM27
RE: RE: Thank you THEBIGM27Yes it does.
I'm not going to desert this story, the resource is really good. But for now I'll take my changes for lower SP. (Plus I needed money elsewhere)
However, they don't have $2/share in cash. It's little less one dollar per share. Selwyn resources did exactly the same type of deal. Chinese major invested $100m to the joint venture company for 50% share of the project. I.e. implied take over price was $100m. That leaves SWN with 50% of the project value and $50m cash inside the joint venture. However, the stock trades at big discount to this implied $100 mcap.
I'm not saying it will necessary happen here, DM has got much more publicity and the project is better too. But the JV took off some upside.Nokomis pre-tax NPV10 at base case prices is $1600 m. They will likely use little higher base case mineral prices in BFS, so I would assume after tax NPV10 would be close to this same $1600m. I.e. They would get about $400m for the 25% of the project. The remaining 35% would be valued somewhat more maybe using after tax NPV8. This would be valuation when construction begins. So we would be looking at 5 bagger in 3 years. There are lots of juniors trading at similar discounts. Share price appreciation is determined how safe and robust market sees DM. Some of the bigger and most accepted projects trade already at their NAV although they are many years from production.