RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I have a dreamWho said anything about a hostile takeover? Thera already as a relationship with Serono (Rights to the American market) which they qualified as strategic for them. Serono is already part of the family and would not be considered that much of a hostile move if they wanted to acquire all of Thera. If someone can be considered knowledgeable about the current status of the FDA review Serono would surely be one of them.
As you mentioned ,Thera has gone trough the process of a strategic review in the past and disqualified takeover on the basis of having no serious buyers and not because they where not interested. Today is quite a different story, they have a partner and given the right incentive they would certainly favour them more then anyone else. Let's not forget that the market condition have changed and also that there is quite a difference between trading a few shares in the 12-13$ range and trading all of the shares for 12-13$ a pop.
Guaranteed price for all shares + guaranteed hefty price for all options + nice guaranteed secure job = interesting for management.
This is not about how pharma works; it's only about how investors and money-makers react to news, information and rumours. If investors feel that Thera will be bought out before the FDA decision the stock will jump and there will be a cease trade order to get an explanation and then we will know. If the stock goes up gradually and in an orderly fashion up to the FDA decision, no cease trading will occur. IMHO the maximum share price will be attained just prior to the FDA decision (I believe it will be positive) after that there will be profit taking. Don't ask me at what price it will be because frankly I do not know, the only important thing for me is to sell half my position at close to the right time.
What happens after that is hard to say because there is insufficient information, news or rumours to guide me.