RE: RE: RE: last second dumpsFirst of all, to compare Agnico Eagle to Orvana is comparing apples to oranges. There are a number of factors more then simply gold production that move a gold stock. AE has 5 million+ ounces in reserves and they have 5 operating mines.....the more mines a company has, the more it's going to be rewarded for it, due to decreased risk of any problems at any one mine.
Second, the players that a stock needs to really move (institutional buying) never buys gold companies that are in the stages that ORV is in right now.,...they do not take speculative risks. According to them, ORV is simply a company with a dying Bolivian mine. I know it's tempting to say "oh, but they'll have this in 2011, and then financing" and that may even be correct. But if you've been around long enough, you will know that sometimes, these "sure things" have a way of not always working out. Of course, sometimes they do...the point is, there is still risk ehre, and the institutions are not going to be interested until they've got their mines up and running.
That being said, ORV has been on a pretty classic uptrend in the past year, higher highs and higher lows, bouncing very nicely off the 50 DMA. As of right now, it is directly on the 50 DMA, so is at the very bottom of it's range, and will likely (as long as the trend stays intact) resume the uptrend to around $1.35 soon (by my calculations).
Of course, should it break the 50 DMA, it could possibly retest the 200 DMA around
.90 or so....although I don't expect that to happen.
Despite popular opinion, gold juniors generally don't follow the POG very much, what generally moves them are fundamental factors....i.e. if they FIND gold, or if they get their mines up and running. So I don't expect ORV to break it's uptrend due to the coming gold correction, which will likely see gold either back below $1000 or very close to it.