GREY:MAAFF - Post by User
Post by
hkaasknownon Feb 03, 2010 11:34am
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Post# 16747915
My 2C
My 2CI am not an analyst, nor I trust one.
Now that I don't have a position in MAA, will have to decide if I wan to get back in and when. I am pretty sure I will hold a large position again, as I do think it will provide a nice return once the deal is CLOSED. One's gotta look at both pros and cons, regardless of which side you are on.
Cash is a major concern. They had about $25M a month ago:
* during the conferene call, they admitted they are working to reduce cash burn rate. That tells me it is an issue.
* 100% debt financing does not give a penny to MAA
* only way to get the cash from complant is when it decides to become a JV - this is an option to them and they do not have to make that decision right away.
I hold MOL, and they are going through a similar situation. It is taking months to get all approvals needed. What if the deal falls through in 6 months? Have the management earned my trust?
COMPLANT does not have to manipulate to keep MAA's sp low, if it decides to buy out.
Some events that might give a boost:
* MAA securing a loan
* an approval (of a few needed) from China is announced soon.
Here is the way I see it. At the end, everyone is trying to get from point A to point B, and the route each chooses may be different. Some choose to go on a highway, and some choose to avoid highway. It may take one hour if you go during traffic jam, or it may take 1/3 if you avoid traffic jam.
If MAA is able to hold selling pressure, good for the longs.