RE: Nova Febuary updateThanks for the heads-up on the NG NR.
I'm looking at the timelines outlined in this NR and in CUU's last NR regarding their FS.
CUU is expecting to have their FS done by the end of the year.
So Teck would need to decide on the buy-back sometime in Q1 2011.
This is before Galore expects to complete their new Pre-FS.
Once a positive FS is complete, CUU should be looking for some forward moving momentum and chasing hard after funding to get the mine into production (assuming permitting, EA, and everything else falls into place). So Teck may need to switch gears and focus on CUU first if they're going to buy-back in. So I'm wondering if this is going to come down to Teck's budget and their earn-in obligation with Galore coupled with the several hundred million they would need to commit to CUU. Or if they'll be able to juggle the costs and start throwing a lot of cash at CUU in 2011-2013 (an optimistic guess) and then likely also have to pickup the tab to get Galore back into swing as early as 2012/13/14 (another guess).
Does anyone know how much capital Teck is sitting on these days? Can they pull together enough cash to satisfy both projects? Or will they be facing a major decision on which project to fund and which to put on the back burner. Or will the project timelines be staggered enough to make it feasible for Teck to fund both?
It certainly appears that CUU now has a significant lead towards getting into production.
I almost wonder if the Teck strategists foresaw a benefit in getting the road completed to the 48km mark given that this would make things much easier for CUU to get into production quicker and start generating cash flow sooner to lighten the burden of getting both of these projects into production. I always wondered why NG shut pretty much everything down except the completion of the first segment of the road.
There's a lot of guesswork here as to how these 3 companies are intertwined. From what I've read, all 3 companies mgmt teams have some impressive backgrounds and I wouldn't underestimate them. They've all survived the economic crisis well. Less diligent juniors have folded (my wallpaper will attest to that).
This is all just speculations IMO. I'd love to hear some insight if there's any to be had. I'm locked in heavy & long on this one.