RE: GOLD UPUntil it starts producing, it is just going to keep tracking to the trendline it has established over the last year, with relatively consistent bounces. PG doesn't move as much to the pog as much as it does drill results, and if you go back over the last 180 days you can see a really consistent bounce pattern associated with positive announcements. Eg. bounce up in Oct (good results over long runs) after Sept down (bought deal), bounce up in November (1.54oz/ton over 26 ft), bounce in Dec (39g/ton over 15.7 ft) and bounce in mid Jan (26 g/ton over 13 ft). Every time there is a good result announced, we get a
.60 to
.75 lift before it gradually settles back down onto the trendline. Right now it is drifting right along the 1-year trendline and if nothing bad happens, just by following the trendline it will probably be around $4.50 in 6 months. With the 43-101 on the open pit to come soon, it will bounce again (assuming the results show it is feasible) and then in late summer when they release the 43-101 on HardRock underground it should bounce again. When they actually start producing, then it will tie to the pog and gold going up will make a difference. Right now, gold going up just means rising inflation and lower dollar value, and that increases the cost of exploration, which when you aren't producing means you are just spending more money so it drives it back down. If you believe that the 43-101 will produce good news, then while PG is running on the trendline is an excellent time to be adding to your position. If you are a sceptic, then get your stop-losses set up because if it dives, it will go quick and far (probably back to the $2.50 ranger or possibly even $2.00).