RE: RE: 10.25% interest rateMy numbers are a little more conservative.
.70 after interest expense. Minus
.09 for dilution of warrants,
.20 for new income taxes and probably another
.10 because the economy is in the tank. That leaves about
.31 of distributable cash.
Now what multiple should one put on that, for a company that is sinking in debt. Remember on July 31, 2011 they have to pay back the $100 million for the convertible debentures. I can guarantee you that these new lenders will not allow that to happen, so AG.UN will need to refinance. This pretty much means another $100 million of new dilution because they will be forced to lower the conversion price closer to market prices. I would suggest you can look forward to at least 20 million new shares or a 50% dilution, which now puts the distributable cash in
.20 per year range.
As for dividends, until these new loans are paid back, I am sure they are forbidden. These new lenders forbid every other use of cash other than repayment to them, I cannot see them allowing a dividend.