RE: RE: RE: PDACBishop,
"where the heck these diamonds came from"a certain W. Bruce from the MDRU (Mineral Deposit Research Unit) is currently helping Dianor answer that question under the guise of his MSc candidtae work..... maybe we will have a detailed theory postulated by DOR and MDRU at the PDAC?
see slide 32
www.divex.ca/documents/MDRU_2008-11-27.pdf
with regard to DOR dealing with the topic of "projected shortages of rough expected in the next decade" at the PDAC, Des Killilea (RBC Capital Markets) shows us who/what other than DOR/Leadbetter is likely to plug the expected gap. JR has recently brought Killilea (probably the leading global diamond analyst) up to speed with the Leadbetter dynamics
Gahcho Kue in Canada
Owned by Mountain Province (49%) and De Beers Canada (51%). Taken 10 years to date and may be in production at end-2012 producing 3m ct per year for 15 years. Remote and has been working on this for 10 years so far
Renard in Canada
Owned by Stornoway (50%) and Soquem (50%). Started exploring in 1999 and unlikely to be a mine before 2013. Annual output could be ~1m ct/year.. but needs infrastructure
Star Project in Canada
Owned by Shore Gold. Bought the claims in 1995 and spent ~$300m so far. Could produce 1m-2m ct a year but production still a way off – perhaps 2012-2013
AK6 Mine in Botswana
Owned by Africa Diamonds (28%) and De Beers (66%) . Could be producing 0.5mct-1mct a year for 12 years by mid 2011
Lace Mine in South Africa
Owned by DiamondCorp (74%). Could produce 0.5m ct per year by 2012
As you can see there is not much to fill in the gaps created as older mines in Africa, Canada, Australia and Russia start slowing.
Assuming we get a grade of 0.4cpt we are looking at an annual production of 7.5m carats in order to deplete the resource using a 30 yr minelife plan! That level of annual production is more than the projected combined output of all of the above examples.
You will also notice that aside from the low volume African mines, the larger volume Canadian examples are a beotch to mine due to weather, infrastructure deficits etc.
Its no wonder that JR is excited about the emerging competitive position of the Leadbetter and this is the story he will be telling majors, diamond funds in UAE, private equity players, retail jewellers etc in order to loosen the purse strings on the debt financing we require.