RE: RE: spud date.."Hopefully for the last time goldtoe, they don't have any reserves at Qara Dagh,
so quit the BS."
You're absolutly right Goofy, they son't have any reserves at Qara Dagh, because they haven't drilled the well yet. But then why are they drilling the well. It is because they believe there is a lot of oil there. In fact, a THIRD PARTY analysis figures there is a 90% chance there is 269 million barrels OR MORE. Vast's share would be 99.5 million barrels. That is reserves, not OOIP. There is also a 10% chance there will be over twice as much reserves.
How much is 99.5MMbbl worth. Why at $80/bbl it is worth $7.96 billion dollars or roughly $28.75 a share. Of course Vast doesn't get to keep all that money, they have to pay royalties, overhead, drilling and development costs on their share and their portion of the governments share (although that is usually paid back with production income). By the time they pay all that they'll probably only be left with 25 cents on the dollar. But that still works out to $7.20/share. There may be some share dilution at this time, but it will be based on new shares being issued at over $5 each, not 70 cents.
So why is it only trading at 10% of this value? Uncertainty, plain and simple. There is a 10% chance they come up with uneconomic reserves. There is a chance the government could step in and nationalize it, there is a chance of a civil war, there is a chance of terrorist attacks. Maybe the oil will be towards the heavier side and not worth $80 or maybe the price of oil will crash again and make even massive reserves uneconomic. Lots of unknown risks, isn't there? That is why you justify $4/bbl in your calculations. BTW, at $4/bbl the share price is $1.43, so the risk now is 50% per your numbers.
As we get closer and closer to the drilling date, these unknown risks become smaller and smaller. By the time they have gotten to TD some are disappearing (or proved true to give the bashers a bone). As risks reduce or dissappear, the share price will rise.
You are probably correct that the shares are worth 17 cents right now if you do not include the potential of Qara Dagh, but I'm holding my shares until they are worth north of $5.